DOLGOROČNE NAPOVEDI

[walter76]

@Walter 76, pozdravljen!

Ne vem, kakšne zime si ti navajen na obali, zato morda se ne razumema in so najini pogledi različni. Zopet lahko govorim samo za naše kraje okoli Pohorja, saj sem tukaj že več kot 50 let in nekatere razmere tudi dobro poznam. Ne želim nikomur oporekati njegovih mišlenj in prognoz, vendar bi želel nekatere zadeve malo bolj umiriti in jih ne delati pompozne. Nenazadnje berejo te forume ljudje, ki tudi vremenska dogajanja dobro poznajo in se samo nasmehnejo našim pompoznim napovedim. Ker želim, dati temu forumu pozitivni prispevek, vam predlagam, da bodite pri dolgoročnih napovedih bolj previdni. Pa brez zamere in vsem želim veliko veselja pri vremenskih napovedih.
Lp Wisky 

Se strinjam......
Govor je le o povprečno boljši zimi v zadnjih 15-20 letih.....
Ker vemo ,da so bile večinoma mile z kakšno izjemo potem je ta podatek verjetno manj pompozen.
Je pa denimo lani zima bila zelo solidna na obali ena boljših sploh po tem kolikokrat je snežilo ,gpvorim spet v zadnjih 15 letih.

[dbdeki]

Jaz pa menim tako: grelo, zeblo, plundralo in močilo nas to zimo bo. Bo dan ko bodo na svoj račun prišli snegoljubci, fotografi, analitiki, cestarji,... Zagotovo pa lahko povem, da bomo na svoj račun prišli vsi! :-)

[herkules]

najnovejše sezonske karte pa niso vec tako obetavne za mrzlo zimo

[krispy123]

Te dolgoročne napovedi se še bodo velikokrat spreminjale, vendar če pogledamo malo podrobneje lahko vidimo da zima 2010/2011 predvidoma ne bo odstopala od podvprečja , celo nekoliko bo hladnejša kar je tudi povedal Bastardi, in še marsikdo drug.

[wisky]

@Krispy 123,
mislim , da so tvoje ocene pravilne in bomo imeli ponovno eno povprečno zimo z morebiti kakšno stopinjo nižjo temperaturo. Drugih posebnosti v našem koncu zagotovo ne bo.
Lp Wisky

[walter76]

JOE BASTARDI PODROBNEJE ZIMA 2010-2011

HERE WE GO, A MORE DETAILED OUTLOOK

I hope to have a detailed European video on the free site this upcoming week. We have a pro site, where people pay for my day to day commentary and videos, and I think some of the misunderstanding here is that many of you dont understand that what you see here on the free site is the tip of my iceberg..in other words, work I volunteered to do because I wanted to show folks in Europe that I could forecast for you.. and that was to attract business interests in Europe as well as some of the altruistic motives. However a marked increase in my work demands in other areas has curtailed that idea, and so I have not been able to weigh in as much, and it pains me. Still the moving emails to me not only got me to do this, but, and if you are going to read my column you'll have to put up with my ideas ( if you don't like what I say, dont read it) really illuminated Luke 7:9 to me. Being that I am into things like, I felt to say thank you, I should make sure I get this out to you!

So here is what I have done. I have gone into much more detail in regions or countries. Please take no offense is your country is not mentioned specifically, you may just fall into the weather region I have you in. I have my map of Europe in front of me ( notice I even included Iceland!) and so I have really upped the ante here so to speak.

The analog package is much warmer than I have over the north. In fact, the analogs of La Ninas coming off el ninos the previous year is for major warmth north of 40 north, which is much of europe, centered over Scandinavia where winter temps approach as much as 7 above normal ( f)! Some of you, especially my readers in the United Kingdom are really chafing at my less than enthusiastic winter forecast there. Sorry, I just dont believe its going to be that cold.. a bit above normal in the north, near normal in the south, and while I am sure there will be times winter comes calling, there is more danger of it being warm than cold this winter. Its not last year.

That being said, from Italy and the Alps through the Balkans and Turkey, through the Ukraine and into the south of Euro Russia, this looks to be a cold winter and one with more than normal snowfall. So here it is Temps are in F

Iceland temps 1.5 above normal precip near normal snowfall near normal/

United Kingdom.. London Temps -.2f below normal precip 90% of normal snow normal Glasgow temp plus .5 precip below normal snowfall below normal/

Ireland Dublin Temp plus .2F precip 90% of normal snow below/

France Paris temp -.2F precip 90% of normal snow near or a little above normal/

Spain...Madrid temp -.6F precip normal snow near or a little above normal/

Portugal Lisbon temp -.8F temp precip near normal snow near or a little above normal/

Switzerland. Geneva temp -1 f precip normal snowfall above normal/

Italy. North temp -1 precip near normal snowfall a bit above Italy south temp -1 precip above normal snow a bit above/

Austria Vienna temp -1.5 precip a bit above normal snowfall above normal/

Germany north temps .2 to .4 above normal precip below .. snowfall below normal Germany south temps .2 to .4 BELOW normal precip normal snowfall a bit above Benelux Same as northern Germany/

Scandinavia. 1 above normal south, 2-4 above normal north, precip below normal, snowfall much of Scandinavia below normal/

Poland temps 1 above normal north, 2 below normal south. precip below normal north, above south. snowfall near or below normal north, above normal south/

Czech republic temps 1-2 below normal precip slightly above snowfall above/

Balkans bounded by Slovakia and Hungary on north, Albania to Bulgaria on south, and eastward into the Ukraine temps 2-4 F below normal precip above normal snowfall above normal/

Greece temps 1-3 below normal north, 1 below normal south, precip above normal, snowfall above normal/

Turkey temps 1-3 below normal precip above, snowfall above/

Belarus Temps 1-2 below normal precip below snowfall near normal/

Lithuania.. normal across the board./

Latvia, Estonia temps around 1 above normal, precip below normal snowfall below normal/

Eurorussia. North : same as Scandinavia Central Same as Belarus South Same as Ukraine/

Now, if you agree or disagree, lets simply see how things turn out. But that is my idea in more detail now.

Again, you are wonderful. I cant tell you how moved I was by the email, and you know something I brought up a spiritual aspect of it, but it gives me faith also that in spite of what looks to be a world spinning out of control, the basic goodness of people means there is hope for our children.

Sometimes in the weather, if you look hard enough, you can see that there is more at play than just the weather.

[Oblak69]

Evo video od Bastardija...

http://www.accuweather.com/video/646598930001/the-euro-winter-lets-not-get-too-carried-away.asp?channel=vbbastaj

in nekaj od Italijanov

http://meteolive.leonardo.it/meteolive-notizia-31123-fase_stabile_e_piu_mite_allorizzonte.html

Lahko kratek povzetek prosim, nerazumem najbolje. Hvala

[MINIMAX]

It is interesting that with no one word the states of former Yugoslavia are mentionted in any of this forecasts even they lie almost in the center of the "worst cold & snow".

[wisky]

Ej, slovenčki, slovenčki !!
Wisky

[Ekolog]

Ej, slovenčki, slovenčki !!
Wisky

Si mi z jezika vzel, bohnedi, da bi kdo kdaj kak krajši slovenski povzetek napisal

[goldhorn]

Ej, slovenčki, slovenčki !!
Wisky

Ja, ta tema počasi postaja enaka smetišču.

[chris93]

Saj ni ravno kaj za prevajat. Slika že veliko pove.
Od severa Italije pa vse do skrajnega zahoda Rusije se pričakuje hladnejša in bolj snežena zima. Na severu pa bo toplejša oz. milejša kot lansko leto. Hladna zima se pričakuje tudi v Španiji in južnem delu Francije. Padavine pa tam ne bodo odstopale preveč od povprečja.
Nekdo je omenil, da se Bastardi skoraj nikoli ne zmoti. Pa saj ni nadčlovek, da bi znal napovedati vreme. On bere karte tako kot mi, le da ima on dostop do vseh možnih napovedi 

LP

[krispy123]

Napoved za trimesečje november, december, januar
Izdano 27.10.2010
Evropa:

Izračuni večine vodilnih svetovnih meteoroloških centrov, ki se ukvarjajo s sezonskimi vremenskimi napovedmi (ECMWF, Met Office, Meteo-France, IRI), za trimesečje november in december 2010 ter januar 2011 napovedujejo nad večjim delom Evrope temperature blizu povprečnim vrednostim za zadnjih 25 let. Nad celinskim delom Evrope je možno manjše odstopanje v smeri nižjih temperatur, v bližini Atlantika pa je zaznati šibak signal za rahlo nadpovprečne temperature v tem trimesečju.

Pričakovana količina padavin v tem obdobju je blizu povprečja, le v vzhodnem Sredozemlju in na Britanskem otočju naj bi padlo nekaj manj dežja kot običajno.

Slovenija:

Na območju Slovenije lahko v tem trimesečju predvidoma pričakujemo temperature, ki bodo nekoliko nižje od povprečja zadnjih 10 let, a še vedno blizu povprečnim vrednostim za obdobje 1981-2005.
Ob tem se je treba zavedati, da pri tem mislimo na povprečno trimesečno temperaturo, znotraj tega obdobja pa bodo seveda tako hladna, kot tudi topla obdobja. Predvidoma bodo relativno toplejša obdobja pogostejša v novembru, hladnejša pa v decembru in januarju.

Količina padavin naj bi v tem trimesečju dosegala približno povprečno vrednost.

Opomba: Sezonske vremenske napovedi v zmernih geografskih širinah so dokaj nezanesljive. Možna so tudi znatna odstopanja od napovedanih vrednosti

Vir je arso

[vremenar12]

Do sredine novembra se nam obeta nadpovprečno toplo in spremenljivo vreme.

Naslednji teden bo vsega pomalem. Nekaj dežja, sonca, obilnejše padavine pa bodo možne predvsem na zahodu Slovenije, več sončnega vremena pa bo na vzhodu. Skratka tipičen jugozahodni tip vremena.

[sasolaguna]

http://www.wetter.de/cms/aktuell/wettertrend_deutschland.html?startid=524159

takole nemci napovedujejo januar.