DOLGOROČNE NAPOVEDI

[walter76]

Suddenly it's a summer pattern to end the cold in western Europe.

Just a note to say the long and winding road out of winter is about to come to an end. The core of the very cold pattern that has gripped much of western Europe will drift southeast the next several days and then fade next week as a major reversal to much warmer occurs from the UK to Spain then spreads into the center of the continent. Temps the 20th and beyond could get as much above normal as they were below over the past 12 days, the coldest start to May in many places since 1996. So heads up, warming is on the way.

[GregorS]

Nad nami bo še naprej nestabilno, anticiklon bo vztrajal nad Atlantikom in v roku 10 dni kake vročine ni videti.Še več, obstaja velika verjetnost da bo potovalo iz severa novo ciklonsko območje proti Sredozemlju.

[dominikb]

Kot izgleda ,naj bi bilo v začetku drugega tedna topleje zaradi jugozahodnih vetrov, nato pa bo od srede ali četrtka naprej zopet bolj spremenljivo vreme z nevihtami. To naj bi trajalo vsaj do konca meseca in še v začetku junija dvomim da bo kaj bolj stabilno. Najboljše bo da sledimo situaciji.

[maticek07]

Bastardi pravi, da bo zima 10/11 brutalna


<sup>HEADS UP EASTERN EUROPE, BRUTAL WINTER MAY BE IN THE MAKING

A couple of notes from yours truly on the upcoming Euro winter.



I do not like the looks of this.

First of all... Northern hemisphere Ice has returned to well below normal. It will not reach the levels of 2007 as there is much thicker ice now than there was then and the turn to cooler than normal in the arctic will occur July on. So the latter part of the ice melt season will be slower. In the meantime..a record southern hemisphere ice season may be in the making! Total global sea ice is currently a shade ABOVE normal.



Globally, this has been a very warm start, but the crash is coming. Last year, in spite of the cold winter I had for the states and Europe, I expected and made note of a spike in global temps. This year, global WINTER temps instead of being over .5C above normal will be near or below normal ( I have -.05C) for the 3 month running mean.

I am expecting much of Europe to average below normal this winter with temps as much as 3c BELOW normal in Scandinavia and south into the Balkans. Western Europe is up for grabs and may be closer to normal..not as bad as last year.. moral is the further east you live, the worst things may be.

This is all I have for this right now, it is only June. I dont want to be mean, but that is as far as I am going right now, so I wont be answering email questions on specifics.

If you are upset that it may be cold again ( although GB and Ireland may be closer to normal) a word of advice... get used to it.. more is on the way in the coming decades

ciao for now ****</sup>

[vremenar12]

Poglejmo kaj pravijo dolgoročne ameriške napovedi za prihajajočo jesen in zimo.

JESEN 2010:
Evropa:
Jesen bo v vzhodni polovici Evrope nekoliko toplejša od povprečja, drugod pa bolj hladna kot je normalno.
V večjem delu Evrope bo tudi več padavin kot je običajno, suho jesen si lahko obetajo le v Rusiji in na Iberskem polotoku.

Slovenija:
Pri nas lahko pričakujemo bolj hladno jesen kot je običajno in tudi nadpovprečno namočeno. Najbolj hladen bo kot kaže november, kar pomeni, da bo letos lahko zima precej zgodnja.

ZIMA 2010/2011:
Evropa:
Zima bo v večjem delu  Evrope hladnejša od povprečja, najbolj mrzlo bo v Rusiji. V zahodni Evropi pa kaže na nekoliko bolj milo zimo kot je običajno.
Padavin bo padlo najmanj v Sredozemlju in vzhodni Evropi, na Iberskem polotoku kaže na zelo suho zimo. Nekoliko več padavin pa bo v severnem delu srednje Evrope in v Skandinaviji.

Slovenija:
Pri nas bo letošnja zima nekoliko hladnejša kot je običajno in precej suha s podpovprečno količino snega.

Vir:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecSea.gif

[walter76]

Do ponedeljka gre pričakovati večinoma sončno vreme in (zelo ) toplo vreme ,predvsem v soboto,nedeljo,ponedeljek na vzhodu in Primorskem.

-Okrepitev ANTICIKLONA-posebej vroče bo na jugu Italije,Grčiji,J.Dalmaciji...pa tudi Španiji celo blizu 30-35,ponekod celo blizu 40.C
Pri nas okoli 30 na Primorskem in na vzhodu verjetno tudi do 32.C

NEDELJA temp- 850hpa



Nekaj nestanovitnosti sicer bo do petka predvsem na SZ,Z Slovenije .
Kakšna ploha in nevihta več bo verjetno v petek 20.8 zaradi prehoda -oslabljene- fronte.
.....

V torek 24.8 bo po večini še sončno in zelo toplo,vendar bodo verjetno čez dan posebej na severu že plohe in nevihte,ki se bodo zvečer ali v noči na sredo 25.8 razširile nad večji del države...
Morda tudi kakšna močnejša nevihta v torek popoldne-zvečer....



Sreda 25.8 bi naj prinesla ohladitev za 5 do 8.C ter precej nestanovitno vreme.

....

Sledilo naj bi 3 ali 4 dnevno dokaj mirno in suho vreme...

Konec meseca ali sam začetek 9 meseca,pa bi lahko pomenil dokončen zlom poletja in uvod v bolj moker začetek septembra ter še en padec temperatur !

Temperature pred možnim -izrazitim poslabšanjem...


Ob morebitnem poslabšanju-summerkiler- ?

[vremenar12]

Poglejmo podrobneje kaj kažejo dolgoročne ameriške in evropske vremenske napovedi za jesen in zimo v Sloveniji:

JESEN:
Jesen bo nadpovprečno namočena in hladna. Največje odstopanje od povprečja kaže za november, ki bo lahko že povsem zimski.

ZIMA:
Najbolj zimski mesec bo kot kaže december, hladnejši od povprečja bo s povprečno količino padavin.
Januar bo precej suh in povprečno topel, podobno bo tudi februarja.

Če se uresniči ameriška napoved bo letos zima zgodnja, tako da lahko že v novembru po nižinah računamo na snežno odejo.

Evropski meteorologi:
Po njihovem scenariju bo jesen toplejša od povprečja s povprečno količino padavin, za december pa tudi oni napovedujejo nižje temperature od povprečja.

[Oblak69]

Poglejmo podrobneje kaj kažejo dolgoročne ameriške in evropske vremenske napovedi za jesen in zimo v Sloveniji:


Januar bo precej suh in povprečno topel, podobno bo tudi februarja.

Tole se mi malo čudno sliši "povprečno topel". Verjetno se bi pravilno glasilo povprečno hladen, al ne.

[walter76]

BASTARDI SE JE SPET OGLASIL

To My European readers...

You may have noticed a marked decrease in my postings in the last month or two. This is because of new duties I have here that really mean I have very little time to put forth the kind of honest effort that ethically I feel bound to when making a forecast. I have never backed away from a challenge, but I find my position, as far as trying to get out there and keep you up-to-date, impossible to maintain. There is only one of me, only so many hours in a day, and while my first love is the kind of pattern dissection needed to give you hints on your weather, I am no longer capable of doing this in a consistent fashion, because of these other things, for Europe.

I have seen the emails wanting to know about the winter. Again, to put together a forecast and line things up the way I do, takes a long time, and what I now do takes away from that time. My gut feeling is the core of the cold this winter... in relation to normals, runs from the Alps to the Balkans. I don't think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more thing... precipitation will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter.

I actually feel a bit guilty about putting out something like this because it is not how I do things... I have a code I live by. On the other hand, I guess I did not realize how many of you follow me over there, and I am moved. I will try my best to put together a forecast that, right or wrong, I can feel I did my best with. Again, the amount of time that has to be devoted to these new work requirements is close to 10 hours a week, and that is time I spent researching things... and may I add enjoying myself while I did it. I can't say that I enjoy what I am doing in this other option, but as the great Christian minister Oswald Chambers said, it is those that can find glory in drudgery that are actually reaching for the highest ideal... Anyone can do something when it's all chocolate and roses, which is what the challenge of putting together a Euro forecast is to me, a labor of love.

Believe me, I am trying.

By the way, I see the AGW crew is yelling about the 2nd lowest ice total ever. I remind you, it was forecast here, and it got to exactly where I said. Unfortunately for that crowd, their days of crowing are numbered. A Lot of them predicted it to be lower than '07 because they either don't understand what is going on or they are loathe to admit it. The Earth is going to cool. THE PDO HAS BEEN WARM SINCE WE STARTED MEASURING THE ICE, AND NOW IT HAS REVERSED! The 2nd lowest total ever is only in the last 32 years, and in the wake of the Nino, which warms the planet, it could not even get back to where it was in '07. Now things are really going to take off the other way in the next two years. Then lets see what happens after 30 years of cold PDO, and then when the Atlantic kicks in. We won't have to wait. Sea ice next summer will be back to levels that we were at before 2005, and the following summer will be where they were in the late '90s! And I think they know darn well what is coming, because their precious climate models are showing the cooling now big-time in the Arctic region. Notice how there is no mention of that. It's got to sting when a human sees something before the model, especially if it shoots holes in their theory.

Look at this... The ice-melt season next year may not start till May if these models have any clue (which because of the powerful Nina they will, once the Nina has reached its maturity).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbT2mSea.g if

If you can't get this, just google coupled forecast system and go to the global temperature seasonal forecast. It's got to have the warming crowd seeing blue.

And let's see some brave journalists in 2013 come over here and question some of our politicians who have been saying the sea ice will be gone by then. It's about time someone held their feet to the fire, which is what we may all want to do in 20-30 years to keep warm.

Okay, off my soapbox, sorry about that, but the coming cooling is like shooting fish in a barrel. Keep an eye on this site and watch the bottom drop out over the coming six-nine months on the global temperatures.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

And by the way, if you can't see the oceans leading the air temperature with the bouncing up and down with the Nino and Nina, then you simply won't admit the obvious. And just wait till the cumulative years of a cold PDO start piling up... Again, the forecast is back to where we were at the start of the satellite era of OBJECTIVE measurement, as seen here, but 2030. But you can watch the sharp drop off of the Nino-induced peak in the next nine months.

Anyhow...

I will try to get the kind of forecast you expect from me, and I expect from myself, on line. Please understand.

Ciao for now... and thank you for the requests, as the reasons for them are flattering. I will try my best.

[walter76]

 v Splitu bo zima bolj hladna kod v Oslu


http://www.slobodnadalmacija.hr/Split/tabid/72/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/116273/Default.aspx

[sasolaguna]

če kdo mebe vpaša, zime letos ne bo. hurikani bojo dolgo v december vlekli topel zrak daleč na sever.

[walter76]

Okoli 20.10 bo Bastardi dal podrobno napoved za zimo........pa da vidimo......

[Ciklon]

Po ameriških izračunih CFS za sezonsko napoved, lahko pričakujemo, da bo zima v večjem delu Evrope hladnejša od povprečja (1981-2006), količina padavin na območju Alp pa bo okoli povprečja (1981-2006).

Izračuni na podlagi analiz vremena v zadnjih 10 dneh:

[maticek07]

Zima v Rusiji in v vzhodni Evropi bo najhujša v zadnjih 1000 let!!!!

http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

[Ekolog]

Sj bo pri nas tud kr oštra...