Sezona Tornadov 2012

Stormchaser · 22. Januar 2012, 10:11:48

No pa se je že začelo.La Nina dela svoje, saj je v Ameriki, že v Januarju izdan Moderate Risk z 15% možnostjo, nastanka močnejših in dolgoživečih tornadov.Hudo je to, da zopet na mestu, kjer je lani bil tisti najhujši izbruh tornadov v zgodovini Amerike, pa še opomogli si še niso.Kar je pa še najhuje je pa to, da bodo večinoma nastali v večernem času.Res z**** !Bomo spremljali!
Še slikce in napovedi

LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS MEMPHIS TN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SSWWD ACROSS ERN AR. MODEL
FORECASTS RAPIDLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND
23/00Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINEAR
MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW
MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO
450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A
LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE
GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS
THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN
AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

Stormchaser · 22. Januar 2012, 14:43:27

Novi update iz Agencije za predvidevanje neviht je še slabši kot prejšnji.Povečalo se je območje Moderate Riska kot tudi možnost nastanka hujših tornadov.So pa povečali možnost za močne vetrove in sunke vetra na 45% prej je bilo 30%!Že zelo zgodaj se dogaja tam doli, sicer zaradi La nine se je pričakovalo, da bo zopet pred pričetkom sezone, možen kak manjši izbruh, vendar takega Moderate Riska 22.1. pa res nisem pričakoval!
Še slike ter napoved

A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE LWR MS
VLY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS...TN...AND LWR OH VLYS THIS EVE
THROUGH EARLY MON...

POTENT UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E INTO ERN
KS/OK THIS EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING
ENE ACROSS THE MID MS...LWR OH...AND TN VLYS TNGT AND EARLY MON.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS KS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE
ACROSS NRN MO AND IA TNGT...AND INTO WI EARLY MON.

AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...SATELLITE AND VWP DATA ATTM SHOW BROAD
50+ KT SSWLY LLJ EXPANDING NWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE PLNS. THIS
JET WILL EXPAND FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VLYS TODAY...WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED LAYER
OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.

STRONG TSTMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVE FROM IL
SSW INTO PARTS OF MO/AR AND LA...ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD
FROM THE LOW. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR
TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E
AND NE ACROSS THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH 12Z MON

Možnost nastanka tornadov

Možnost na močnejše vetrove ter sunke vetra

chris93 · 22. Januar 2012, 15:20:29

Bogi ljudje, še pozimi nimajo miru.

Stormchaser · 23. Januar 2012, 16:35:32

No takole.Včeraj je bilo, kot je bilo že napovedano, zelo pester večer ter zgodnje jutro!Na območju, kjer je bil Moderate risk so našteli 21 reportov o tornadih.Od teh je trenutno eden potrjen kot smrtni, saj je terjal zaenkrat 3 smrtne žrtve, posledice še preučujejo za oceno stopnje.Zanimivo in žalostno ob enem je pa to, da je imel zelo podobno pot v County Jefferson, Alabama, kot lani na tisti zgodovinski izbruh 27.4.2011!

Še slika ter nekatere podrobnosti!Se pa reporti še vedno spreminjajo, saj še vedno verjetno dobivajo informacije o nastali škodi, posledično, je možnost, da je tam bil tudi tornado.Verjetno gredo potem na ogled in potrdijo, ali je bil prisoten tornado ali ne zato tudi kasnejši dodatki k reportom!

0126      4 NE FORDYCE    CLEVELAND    AR   3386   9236   TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT4 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORDYCE. (LZK)
0126      4 NW FORDYCE    DALLAS    AR   3386   9246   2 HOUSES DAMAGAED ON HIGHWAY 8 NORTHWEST OF FORDYCE. NO INJURIES REPORTED AT THIS TIME. (LZK)
0140      5 W COY    LONOKE    AR   3454   9196   AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWWN 5 MILES WEST OF COY (LZK)
0159      2 N SLOVAK    PRAIRIE    AR   3468   9158   AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES NORTH OF SLOVAK. (LZK)
0230      2 E LODGE CORNER    ARKANSAS    AR   3430   9150   LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 11 AND 165 TWO MILES EAST OF LODGE CORNER. (LZK)
0233      4 NW DE WITT    ARKANSAS    AR   3433   9139   TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY STORM CHASERS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DE WITT. (LZK)
0236      4 NW DE WITT    ARKANSAS    AR   3433   9139   TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY STORM CHASERS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DE WITT. (LZK)
0236      4 S ALMYRA    ARKANSAS    AR   3435   9141   A SHED AND DUCK BLIND WERE DEMOLISHED ON STROH ROAD. (LZK)
0238      1 W BURKS    ARKANSAS    AR   3430   9142   TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND 1 MILE WEST OF BURKS. (LZK)
0355      SIMSBORO    CRITTENDEN    AR   3502   9038   (MEG)
0520      TREBLOC    CHICKASAW    MS   3383   8885   TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR TREBLOC. (MEG)
0639      DICKSON    DICKSON    TN   3608   8738   PUBLIC REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO IN THE CITY OF DICKSON. (OHX)
0853      3 SW LAUDERDALE    LAUDERDALE    MS   3249   8855   LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA REPORTS THEY HAVE RECEIVED NUMEROUS PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN NE LAUDERDALE COUNTY BETWEEN THE LOCKHART AND LAUDERDALE COMMUNIT (JAN)
1000      3 E FULTONDALE    JEFFERSON    AL   3362   8674   PAWNEE VILLAGE ROAD COMPLETELY IMPASSIBLE IN TARRANT. (BMX)
1010      CLAY    JEFFERSON    AL   3370   8660   SEVERAL HOMES DESTROYED IN THE PARADISE VALLEY AREA IN CLAY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (BMX)
1015      3 NW TRUSSVILLE    JEFFERSON    AL   3367   8664   TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO HOMES NEAR BALBOA COURT. (BMX)
1017      MARGARET    ST. CLAIR    AL   3369   8647   PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON ROULAIN ROAD IN THE MARGARET COMMUNITY. (BMX)
1027      4 NE TRUSSVILLE    JEFFERSON    AL   3368   8654   MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN TRUSSVILLE WITH MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED. (BMX)
1029      5 SSW SPRINGVILLE    ST. CLAIR    AL   3371   8651   MAJOR STRUCTUAL DAMAGE REPORTED ON OLD SPRINGVILLE ROAD. INJURIES UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (BMX)
1050      FULTONDALE    JEFFERSON    AL   3362   8680   MAJOR STUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED NEAR THE 500 BLOCK OF U.S. HIGHWAY 31 IN FULTONDALE. (BMX)
1105      MAPLESVILLE    CHILTON    AL   3279   8688   MAJOR STRUCTUAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN MAPLESVILLE WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES. (BMX)

Lp

vir:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

TgT · 23. Januar 2012, 20:10:28

21 tornadov, "pošteno" za sredino zime.

County bi lahko bilo okrožje, občina je pa municipality.

Stormchaser · 26. Januar 2012, 14:52:02

Medtem, ko se na JV zopet pripravljajo na možnost pojavljanja tornadov danes, kot zanimivost pogled v lansko sezono z nekaterimi številkami in primerjavami

!

Vir:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/

sasolaguna · 20. Februar 2012, 18:44:44

accuweather napoveduje nadpovprečno sezono za tornade:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/abovenormal-tornadoes-expected-1/61631

sylar9232 · 29. Februar 2012, 20:31:07

Tudi danes v ZDA napovedane nevihte z tornadi, nekaj jih je že bilo.

EDIT : Škoda je precejšnja za februar

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/02/29/10536654-devastation-like-weve-never-seen-in-twister-hit-town

še video tornada
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wQCMklmW0k

Stormchaser · 02. Marec 2012, 11:18:52

Danes se v Vzhodnem delu Amerike lahko obeta Outbreak, z slabimi posledicami.Načeloma niso tako visoke možnosti kot lani, vendar za datum 2.3. tako veliko območje 15%, res ne obeta nič dobrega.Trenutno najhuje kaže na območju 7 držav, kjer je velika možnost za nastanek SC z tornadi po 18Z, se pravi po 19. uri po našem času (se mi zdi, če se motim naj me nekdo popravi)!Bodo pa razmere ponekod dokaj brutalna z neverjetnim strigom okoli 110 kt ter Ehi-jem preko 3 kar je za ta čas neverjetno visoka številka.Mam pa občutek, da bodo povišali v High risk, ker nekateri indici so izredno v prid močnim tornadom.

Moderate risk

Še kratka napoved na SPC-ju:
AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES
AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM
ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE
COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.
Še sliki za možnost tornadov ter toče

Vir:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Še citiranje Reed Timmerja iz Facebooka: "Today is going to be a historic tornado outbreak. Dangerous situation."

Stormchaser · 02. Marec 2012, 14:58:38

Evo kot rečeno Upgrade v prvi High Risk sezone 2012 (zelo zgodaj smo začeli).Mislim, da bo današnji dan eden tistih dnevov, ko se bodo zopet spominjali po uničujočih tornadih!

Kar 30% možnosti za močne tornade na območju Kentucky-a, Idiane ter Tennessey-a

Stormchaser · 02. Marec 2012, 17:56:28

UPDATE 16.30 ura SPC:
Povečano območje High Riska ter območje za možnost močnih tornadov.Obeta se možnost ponovitve lanskega Aprila.Spremljamo

*** OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TODAY
OVER A LARGE AREA ***

...SRN IL...IND...OH...KY...NRN TN...
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER IL AND SERN MO NEAR THE LOW
AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT HAS
RAPIDLY LIFTED NWD OVER THIS AREA...REPLACING COOL AIR WITH WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR EWD INTO OH LATER TODAY.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR THE LOW TRACK...AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTICITY
CENTER AND NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STRONG...AS WILL FORCING. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN MO/IL
SHOULD THRIVE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS A WIDE AND DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR. THIS SHOULD FAVOR LONG LIVED AND FAST MOVING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
WANE LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE MDT RISK AREA AS
LOW LEVELS COOL.

sylar9232 · 02. Marec 2012, 20:17:31

na tem linku je pravkar kazalo tornado, ki se nahaja severno od Evansville

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/chasercam-live

EDIT : Sem našel fotko tornada: http://twitter.com/#!/viewofadam/status/175662837841141761/photo/1

_______________________________________

EDIT : V živo http://www.wave3.com/
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Tukaj pa še posnetek tornada ki je popolnoma uničil Henryville, severno od Louisville, verjetno EF-4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rAZFRRBVFJo

Stormchaser · 03. Marec 2012, 11:22:19

Ulala bi rekel Ališič pri prenosu formule.Tako bi opisal včerajšnje dogajanje v Ameriki.Neverjetno število reportov o tornadih 144, ter trenutno 36 mrtvih so številke, ki prednačijo za včerajšnji pohod tornado Outbreak-a čez lužo.Neverjetne radarske slike ter posnetki iz opustošenih mestih ni pustilo ravnodušne niti naših največjih TV mrež.Sicer nažalost preko live Stream-a ni bilo možno veliko videti, vseeno nekaj malega pa se je dalo pogledati.

Trenutni Reporti o Tornadih in ostalih nevšečnosti (toča, veter)

Ena najbolj impresivnih radarskih slik (vsaka celica je imela Tornado Warning, skrajno desna pa hook echo obliko za v učbenike)

Ter nekaj Screen Shotov včerajšnjih naših videnj preko live stream-a:
Wedge Tornado

Ter še nekaj video povezav včerajšnjih tornadov
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SPU8cirq-Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tamsngApE04&feature=youtu.be

http://www.inkbarreltv.com/inkbarrelCMS/system/networks/in_madison_courier/index.php?console=open

Še naše TV mreže so se razpisale o včerajšnjem dogajanju:
http://www.rtvslo.si/svet/foto-v-zda-zaradi-tornada-umrlo-27-ljudi-mesta-marysville-ni-vec/278077#comments

Thor · 06. Marec 2012, 09:23:50

BREZPLAČNA POMOČ PRIZADETIM OD PUSTOŠENJA TORNADOV

Z klikom oranžnega kvadratka na vrhu te internetne strani brezplačno pomagate prizadetim od naravnih katastrof.

Spodaj povezava do te internetne strani:
http://www.thehungersite.com/clickToGive/home.faces?siteId=1&link=ctg_ths_home_from_ths_thankyou_sitenav

Lp! Thor

paradolf · 06. Marec 2012, 15:07:51

@Stormchaser, daj uporabi prosim drugi link za odlaganje fotografij, ker verjetno večina fotk sploh ne vidi.
Jaz uporabljam Imageshack.