NAPOVED VREMENA (01.08.2008-15.08.2008)

[jest24]

Samo za jutri kaže ALADIN oblačnost čez večino dneva, tako da se bo bolj težko nabralo veliko energije za nevihte.

[Cumulonimbus]

Glede na ALADIN kaže na jutrijšnji potom S polovice SLovenije. Že dopoldan bodo na JZ začele nastajati plohe in nevihte katere se bodo hitro razširile nad vso Slovenije. Kljub morebitnim današnjim padavinam in jutrišnjemu oblačnem začetku dneva, bodo še vedno možna krajevna neurja z veliko točo (5cm.) obilnimi kratkotrajnimi padavinami in močnejšimi sunki vetra. Energije bo ogromno, saj bo JZ tako močan, da bo energijo srkal direktno iz morja, ki pa ima trenutno 26 - 28°C

Popoldan in zvečer pa bodo ob prehodu fronte povsod po Sloveniji možni siloviti nalivi ki bodo lokalno, predvsem v S polovici Slovenije vztrajala daljši čas, zato lahko v kratkem času močno narastejo hudourniki in manjši potoki, ki bi na izpostavljenih območjih lahko poplavljali. Jutri bo tudi velika nevarnost proženja zemeljskih plazov, saj bo zemlja ob tako izdatnih padavinah dodobra namočena.

Predvidevam da bo v večjem delu SLovenije padlo od 30 - 70mm. dežja, v S polovici Slovenije pa od 70 - 120mm., lokalno okoli 150mm. To je zgolj moje predvidevanje, vemo pa kako se stvar lahko poveča ob intenzivnejših dolgotrajnih nalivih, ali pa zmanjša ob zmernem dežju

še dve razglednici





Zanimivo pa je da je GFS precej zmanjšal padavine, saj daje v večini za SLovenijo jutri od 20 - 40mm. lokalno okoli 60mm. dežja Bomo videli kateri model bo naredil kiks, kajti med njima je danes ogromna razlika, včeraj pa vemo kako so stvari stale!



lp Cn

[stajercx]

zlo redko pa se seveda zgodi, če arso poda po celi sloveniji močne padavine..še celo pri nas na štajerskem in celo v prekmurju

<img src="http://i34.tinypic.com/11c6pas.png" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

[markokorosec.net]

Najprej... pozabite na oblake ali karkoli kažejo modeli... nima veze to jutri, ker gre itak za močan "forcing" na fronti in razturilo bo v vsakem primeru seveda tudi na fronti. Ker pa prej, kljub zelo močni advekciji vlažnega in vročega zraka iz Sredozemlja nad nas, ne bo nevem kako močne inverzije, da bi predolgo zadržala predfrontalne nevihte, bo veselo tudi prej. Saj bo trigeriranje vršilo vzdolž hribov. Kaj bo je kot vedno težko rečt, potencial je pa naravnost spektakularen... kaj takega se pri nas skupaj spravi zelo redko. Zanimivo je pa to, da se letos to malo često dogaja.

Skratka, če samo povzamem pogoje na hitro... kvazi stacionarna fronta, ki od včeraj leži nekje nad Alpami in se nadaljuje proti Poljski, se bo ob prihodu izjemne višinske doline za ta čas v sredno Evropo jutri postopno preobrazila v hladno fronto na območju Alp in v toplo SV od nas, nad vzhodnimi Alpami se bo formiral ciklon. Strig vetra v spodnjih 6km bo narasel krepko čez 30m/s in se praktično idealno prekril z veliko nestabilnostjo v toplem sektorju pred fronto. Zaradi bližine tega ciklona bo tudi veter v spodnjih prizemnih plasteh precej ojačan, heličnost bo dokaj visoka, kar samo še dodatno pomaga k izboljšanju pogojev, sploh glede organizacije za močne multi- in supercelične sisteme!

Pojavi so jutri praktično možni vsi, ob teh pogojih so vsi indeksi praktično naterani do vrha svojih lestvic, saj karkoli vzameš v indeks, na koncu seštevek pelje v ekstreme. Spet pa je treba biti previden, kot pri vsaki taki precej kompleksni situaciji... modeli so dokaj enotni za velik raztur na širšem območju okoli Alp in naprej proti SV. Pogoji so taki, da podpirajo nastanek močnih nalivov, enormne toče (>6cm), orkanskih sunkov vetra (>30m/s) in tudi morebitnih tornadov... a glede na to na kolikšem širokem območju modeli simulirajo padavine že sredi dneva, lahko pride tudi do hitrejšega združevanja neviht s večje sisteme (MCS), potem so v igri obilne padavine na širšem območju. Zato pa se modelom meša in rišejo ogromne količine padavin, ker ob tolikšni vlažnosti v zraku in strigu, simulirajo ogromno proženja. Situacija pa nekako deluje v tej smeri kot, da bodo mogoča močna proženja in večji sistemi z obilnimi padavinami v SSZ SLO proti Avstriji, drugje pa bolj izolirane nevihte in lokalna neurja... kot berem nekatere prispevke mi deluje, da nekatere zavedejo karte in jih vse skupaj spominja na Železnike in tisti poplavni dogodek, a situacija je tokrat drugačna. Takrat je bilo klasično JZ stanje z močnih narivanjem toplega zraka nad Dinaride, tokrat gre pa za zlom višinske doline nad Alpami in splošen višinski jet ni toliko paralelno orientiran glede na prizemno hladno fronto. Zato mi po vsem tem situacija deluje bolj v prid neurij kot poplav, ker bi načeloma do združevanja neviht prišlo kasneje, šele ob bližini fronte.

Pri ESTOFEX-u smo z današnjo napovedjo za jutri šli z LEVEL 2 (ker je izdana dan prej), bo pa zvečer ali ponoči verjetno sledila nadgradnja v LEVEL 3 za velik del SLO, severni Jadran in Hrvaško... ter po vsej verjetnosti tudi čez del Slovaške in Poljske.

Skratka jutri oči na peclje, fotoaparate v roke ter predvsem pamet v glavo (!!!) in bomo videli, kaj se bo na koncu izcimilo iz tega.

[Cumulonimbus]

kot berem nekatere prispevke mi deluje, da nekatere zavedejo karte in jih vse skupaj spominja na Železnike in tisti poplavni dogodek, a situacija je tokrat drugačna. Takrat je bilo klasično JZ stanje z močnih narivanjem toplega zraka nad Dinaride, tokrat gre pa za zlom višinske doline nad Alpami in splošen višinski jet ni toliko paralelno orientiran glede na prizemno hladno fronto. Zato mi po vsem tem situacija deluje bolj v prid neurij kot poplav, ker bi načeloma do združevanja neviht prišlo kasneje, šele ob bližini fronte.

Hvala mare za obširno razlago, predvsem pa tole!

Čeprav sem jaz vseeno mnenja da je situacija precej podobna tisti iz Železnikov, le da tokrat proženje ne bo na pregradah Z Julijcev ampak bo proženje usmerjeno na gorato področje S Slovenije, kajti tudi takrat je bil veter ZJZ, tokrat pa bo veter bolj JJZ. Takrat je bila na območju Alp hladna fronta, tako kot jutri, le da je tistega dne, kot si že povedal vlažen zrak iznad JZ vlekel paralelno na hladno fronto, tokrat pa bo topel zrak narivalo bolj diagonalno na hladno fronto! Takrat je samo proženje trajalo 12ur če se ne morim, medtem ko jutri tako dolgotrajnega proženja na pregradah ni za pričakovati, zatorej bodo tudi končne komulative jutrišnjega dne precej manjše od tistih septembra, še vseeno pa mislim da bo verjetno šlo marsikje v S polovici Slovenije jutri preko 100mm.

Nevem to je moje mnenje, skoraj sem prepričan da ob tako močnem strigu, more pridet do izraza orografija, pri orografskih padavinah pa vemo kako je stanje, skoraj sem prepričan da bi ob tako močnem strigu moralo kar fajn močiti, v smislu dolgotrajnih nalivov... Potem pa če še omenimo stacionarno proženje pa so nekateri kraji na konju za vesoljni potop šala


lp

[markokorosec.net]

Ekola, če imate voljo prebrat... tole je moj "outlook" za ESTOFEX glede jutrišnjega dne...



Test Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Aug 2008 06:00 to Sat 16 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Aug 2008 12:38
Forecaster: KOROSEC

SYNOPSIS

Unseasonably strong upper-level trough continues to produce severe weather across Europe while it shifts across central Europe during the forecast period. At surface, quasi-stationary frontal boundary lies SW-NE oriented from central Alps NEwards through Poland into western Russia and active severe weather is expected along this boundary. Strong warm air advection brings hot and very moist airmass with reach BL conditions from southern Europe into central and eastern Europe. During the day, a surface low begins to form over eastern Alpine region and quasi-stationary frontal boundary transforms into the warm front over Poland and the cold front over southern Alpine region, making these two areas the main focus for widespread severe storms.

DISCUSSION

*** A major severe weather outbreak with threat for intense rainfalls, very large hail, strong winds and also a few strong tornadoes is expected in parts of central Europe. ***

... parts of north Italy, north Adriatic, Slovenia, Croatia ...

An intense upper-level trough positioned over France in the morning hours shifts eastwards during the day while it transforms into a negatively-tilted trough over the Alpine region. very impressive 35-45 m/s upper-level jet wraps around the main vort-max progressing across the Alps and brings 30-35m/s of deep-layer shear over north Italy and NW Balkans states. At the low levels, increasing Scirocco winds across Adriatic during the daytime will rapidly increase low-level wind shear up to 15m/s, while given the increasing low to mid level winds SR helicity will also be enhanced and should reach from 200 to 300m^2/s^2 or even more locally. Forecast soundings show pretty impressive boundary-layer conditions with very rich moisture and high values of near surface dewpoints, especially around north Adriatic sea, where surface dewpoint values from 20-24°C will be in place. With an approching upper-level trough into this region, starting in NW Italy in the morning hours and shifting across NE Italy and Slovenia during the afternoon hours, impressive geopotential falls and temperatures dropping down to -18°C at 500mb are forecasted and very steep lapse rates will take place over much of northern Alpine region. Again, high to extreme instability will take place, with more than 2000J/kg of MLCAPE placed over northern Italy, Slovenia and NEwards. Even if pretty strong warm air advection ahead of the coming trough will rapidly increase mid-level temperatures, storm initiation is expected quite early in the mid morning hours, depends also of old outflow boundaries from nighttime convective activity and coverage over the Alpine region, first storms in this forecast period are then expected in the complex hilly terrain where thermal convection will occur and trigger the storms. In those areas, locally extensive amounts of rainfalls could be expected, as moistened BL conditions with strong SSW winds and shear could support organized orographic rainfalls along the slopes of Dynaric mountain range. Some QG forcing and local surface convergence zones will support initiation also over northern Italy. Later into the early afternoon, storms will increase in coverage as trough starts to move eastwards and strong surface heating will overcome weakly capped environment. Given the very favorable veering wind profiles, low/upper-level shear and high helicity values which overlap excelent with the high instability, an explosive convection is expected and storms will rapidly become well organized. Organized severe storms type as multicells and supercells are expected to take place in the warm sector, conditions are favorable also for long-lived supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail (>6cm in diameter), strong wind gusts and also tornadoes, some of them may be strong, as low-level helicity will be maximized in the mid- to late afternoon especially over northern Adriatic and parts of north Italy. This area was included into a level 3 area especially because of expected higher coverage of severe storms which could support a few tornadoes and giant hail.

Later on towards the late afternoon, storms will begin to cluster as frontal boundary starts to move eastwards from Alps into NW Balkans. Two or more large convective systems (MCS) are expected to form and race ENEwards into Austria and Slovenia. The main threat with these clusters of storms will be large hail, strong wind gusts and locally intense rainfalls with flash flooding. Given the favorable kinematics, bowing segments could form along the leading squall-lines in these convective clusters, then even stronger winds and with locally more enhanced helicity values even tornadoes are not ruled out. Again, models are in good agreement of pretty high values of SR helicity of 300m^2/s^2 and more which become supportive also for some strong tornadoes. Also for the reason of this, level 3 area was extended slightly more to the east.

Surrounding the level 3 area threat for severe storms exist, while the coverage will not be as high and concentrated as in the main level 3 area. However, threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and weak tornadoes is still not out of the question.

... parts of Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland ...

During the early afternoon 0-6km bulk shear significantly increses also NE of the Alps over the second level 3 area, ahead of the rapidly forming surface low which transforms quasi-stationary frontal boundary into warm and cold front. Here, the warm front will be the main focus for organized severe storms positioned somehow from around border-line Czech Republic/Slovakia NEwards across central Poland in late afternoon/evening hours. Forming surface depression will also significantly improve low-level conditions to become favorable for well organized convection, as with increasing low-level winds 0-3km bulk shear reaches 20-25 m/s while 0-1km bulk shear reaches around 10-15 m/s. Models are simulating SR helicity values well above 300m^2/s^2 later in the afternoon along/ahead of the surface front. Strong warm air advection from the south will increase mid-level 850mb temperatures to reach 23°C or more east of the frontal boundary which will likely prevent storms initiation with the lack of surface convergence and forcing. Until the mid afternoon hours mostly isolated severe storms are expected in the warm sector and along the warm front which could be initiated by help of the local topograhy. But then in such favorable environment, any storm that will initiate, will rapidly become well organized and easily also supercellular with such impressive helicity and shear values. Threat for very large to giant hail, strong winds and even strong tornadoes will exist. With an approaching upper-level trough and more parallel mid/upper-level winds will likely cluster the storms into one or more large convective systems racing NEwards into eastern Poland bringing threat for strong damaging winds, large hail and locally large amounts of rainfalls. Again, similar as in the southern Alpine region, locally enhanced SR helicity, which is even higher in the parts of Slovakia and south-central Poland with 0-3km values reaching 400m^2/s^2 to more than 500m^2/s^2, stronger tornadoes remain possible along the bowing segments if organized leading edge squall-lines will form. They become possible especially in the early evening into early night hours when winds become more favorable for linear segments while low-level shear and helicity are still maximized.

... NW part of Iberian Peninsula and Bay of Biscay ...

Another upper-level trough with forming surface cyclogenesis is approaching western Europe in the evening/early night hours from north Atlantic with surface cold front extending from United Kingdom through western France towards NWern Iberian Peninsula. The main storm activity will likely be along and slightly ahead of an eastward moving surface cold front. 30-35m/s upper-level jet which rotates around the southern side of the trough axis brings around 20m/s of deep-layer shear into north Iberian Peninsula and Bay of Biscay. As with the lack of boundary-layer moisture and not very steep lapse rates, only several hundreds of MLCAPE are expected. Given to those conditions, then relatively weak instability and moderate wind shear will likely support only thunderstorms which will not reach out severe weather criteria. However, an isolated hail/wind report is not ruled out especially in the extreme NW corner of Spain and north Portugal.

Juicy 

[dominikb]

Vsemu temu se bo pridružilo še visoko plimovanje morja saj bo 16. avgusta polna Luna, ob mlajih in ščipih pa je plimovanje najmočnejše, temu pa se bo pridružil še jugo ki bo grmadil vodo proti kopnemu.

[zimazakon]

 Po nočnih 9 litrov dežja in vsekaj drugega kot "saharski" napovedi za jutri, pa Ameba IQ Boy  vneto zaliva - utaplja svoj Unterkrainishe Aquapark s plavajočo zelenjavo  rekoč: tista vremenarska banda v LJ tako ali tako nima pojma kaj bo jutri z vremenom

[lwzr]

napoved za furlanijo za jutri, petek(enako lahko pričakujemo primorci):

V visokogorju bo oblačno z nevihtami in zelo obilnimi padavinami. V nižinah in ob obali bo zjutraj spremenljivo oblačno s krajevnimi plohami, pihal bo močan jugo. Čez dan bo slabo vreme z obilnimi in obsežnimi nevihtami ter močnim deževjem. Padavine bodo lahko zelo obilne, predvsem na zahodu, kjer bodo presegle 100 mm. Pihali bodo močni vetrni sunki, padala bo toča.

vir : osmer

ne spomnim se da bi italijani kdaj objavili tako napoved!

[paradolf]

Sem mislil da Aladin ne more več padavin v 6h urah pokazat pa sem se zmotil.

[Vreme]

Sem mislil da Aladin ne more več padavin v 6h urah pokazat pa sem se zmotil.

No po pravici povedano, takšne napovedi pa še za naše  SV kraje še nisem videl!!! Ojoj!!!   

[ales77]

Tudi mene je skoraj kap ! Mislil da se bo še to malo spremenilo ,če pa ostane  tako te pa čolne ven 
sliko sem pa shranil

[Perice]

A nas misli Aladin potopit z zadnjo sliko?   če se to uresniči...tega res nismo navajeni za naše kraje!

[Marko]

Kaj naše kraje. Ne vem, če je sploh kdo navajen na take opadavine. Še posebej pa naša zemlja ne. Upam, da se to ne uresniči.

[zimazakon]

Tudi tale nemška simulacija je v sanašnjem mokrem stilu

http://wetter.zdf.de/ZDFwetter/inhalt/21/0,5998,1040053,00.html