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[dominikb]

Izgleda, da bodo sedaj kar nekaj časa prevladovali jugozahodni vetrovi, od nedelje naprej pa bodo v zahodnih predelih že padavine. Še prej pa je možno da bo v Padski nižini megla ali nizka oblačnost, ki bo lahko segla tudi prek Furlanije v naše obmorske kraje.

[dominikb]

Danes izgleda da bo deževno, ter celo nevihte so možne proti večeru. Ker je polna Luna je možno tudi povišano plimovanje morja, predvsem tudi zaradi tega , ker se bo pridružil temu še južni veter ter nizek zračni pritisk. V prihodnjih dneh kaže na nestalno aprilsko vreme, ki se bo vleklo precej v april in možno je da bo tudi Velika noč mokra.

[Ciklon]

Vir: Revija ONA (torek, 30. marca 2010)

[Ledeni]

Gospod Dušan očitno včasih pomeša datume. Ni govora, da je bilo v prvem tednu adventa (29.11. - 5.12.2009) hud mraz in 8 cm snega v Ljubljani.  Pri nas je bilo ves čas 10 do 15°C in tudi na Blokah ob jugozahodniku ni bilo dosti manj. Tak mraz, kot ga omenja g. Dušan, se je pojavil šele v tretjem tednu adventa. In če dnevi od 13. do 24. decembra napovedujejo mesece v letu, potem bi moralo biti tja do novembra kar mraz. Da pa je za božič pihljala burja mi je pa tudi zelo čudno, ker smo ravno tiste dni ob jugozahodnih vetrovih prejemali obilne padavine v obliki dežja.
Ah, ta ljudska modrost 

[Trocki]

Citat: Ne razumem zakaj ljudje že po nekaj deževnih dneh padajo v depresije.

Kaj bi moralo dva meseca skup padat al kaj? 

[maticek07]

Bastardi napoveduje malo ledeno dobo do leta 2030...

http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

[jest24]

No ja... Zdej pa že malo pretirava.

[sasolaguna]

če izbruhne katla pol bo mel kar prav.
kot zanimivost pa, da je bil letošnji marec globalno najtoplejši marec vseh časov. rekord je padel tudi v Los Angelesu, najvišja temperatura je bila kar 94F, to je 35 celzijev. new york se je dan pozneje grel pri 92....

[maticek07]

Bastardi napoveduje že kar nekaj časa, da smo vsopili v obdobje ohlajanja, tako, da bomo snegoljubci spet veseli naslednjo zimo

<sup>FRIDAY MAY 7

THE STATE OF THE WORLD ( OKAY ICE MELT, GLOBAL TEMP)

ICE IN A NOSE DIVE, GLOBAL TEMPS START THEIR FALL.

I publicly stated earlier that global sea ice will take another beating this year, descending below levels it was at last summer, and perhaps 2008, but I dont think it will get back to 2007 levels. This is the natural offshoot of the el nino, BUT REMEMBER it will come roaring back next this winter and the melt season next summer ( 2011) will have it at higher levels than the melt season of 2009. In any case looking at the sites that monitor this, we see them all in agreement now, the ice is crashing. Remember the forecast I made was done so before this started! I am simply calling em as I see them. Here is JAXA

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Arctic ROOS:

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_area.png

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_ext.png

Cryosphere Today

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

notice though the South Pole INCREASE!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

The negative arctic oscillation of the winter that helped out with all this continues and this seems to be a negative in the melt season as light winds and warmer than normal temperatures have to increase the amount of ice melt in summer. Above normal temps and lighter winds in the winter are probably good for ice increase, as above normal is relative... 5-10 above normal where its that cold isnt that big a deal as far as freezing goes, and water tends to freeze quicker when its undisturbed ( common sense). But the return of the cold PDO and major drop in global temperatures that is on the way will turn this around quickly and I would suspect the rebound after this summer will be as, or more dramatic than what just occurred.

The drop in global temps is starting. Here is the site to look at:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

This is direct relationship to the demise of the nino and the combination of cold PDO that will re-assert itself and the complete wiping out of the Nino and turn to the La Nina will drop this like a hot potato. The CFS is now showing that dramatically, getting in line with the Frontier Research Center model:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mS ea.gif

If one "eyeballs" the global temp forecast one can easily see how the warmth now reverses to 60-70% cool by the winter across the globe. Some other models are more dramatic. The CFS is following the lead of other models, which have followed the lead I laid out here at the height of the nino, that a cool event is on the way. In fact, some of the runs of the CFS are now making this as strong a nina as we saw in 2007-2008! Interesting to watch how rapid the response is to the warmth that occurred with the now plainly dying el nino.

I just want to make sure you are up on all this, and where I stand. I can only control what I say, not what people say about me, and so just like with the cold winter I opined we would get a global spike in temps, I am making sure you know before hand that I think the ice has a big melt season this year, comes roaring back though later this year and next, and the global temps are heading down very quickly toward, then perhaps below normal for a few months, over the next 18 months. Just part of the forecast here. and one must think globally to forecast locally. I will post my hurricane ideas on the pro site this weekend, as my private clientele has already seen them. The video for this will be done Sunday or Monday. It will be available on the pro site before the public gets a hold of it.</sup>

[vremenar12]

Kot vse kaže se bo nestanovitno aprilsko vreme nadaljevalo vsaj tja do 20. maja. Do takrat bo vsak dan vsaj nekje po Sloveniji deževalo.

Večji del naslednjega tedna bo podoben temu, več dežja na zahodu, najmanj ali pa nič pa na vzhodu. Ker bo tam tudi več sonca bodo temperature večinoma nad 20 stopinj, drugod pa manj.

Okoli 15. maja pa se kaže zaenkrat za vso Slovenijo poslabšanje z močnejšim dežjem in ohladitvijo, vse je odvisno od lege ciklona.

Temperatur nad 25 stopinj Celzija kot so bile že včasih maja še vsaj naslednjih deset dni ne bo, najbližje tem vrednostim bo vzhodna Slovenija.

[walter76]

Suddenly it's a summer pattern to end the cold in western Europe.

Just a note to say the long and winding road out of winter is about to come to an end. The core of the very cold pattern that has gripped much of western Europe will drift southeast the next several days and then fade next week as a major reversal to much warmer occurs from the UK to Spain then spreads into the center of the continent. Temps the 20th and beyond could get as much above normal as they were below over the past 12 days, the coldest start to May in many places since 1996. So heads up, warming is on the way.

[GregorS]

Nad nami bo še naprej nestabilno, anticiklon bo vztrajal nad Atlantikom in v roku 10 dni kake vročine ni videti.Še več, obstaja velika verjetnost da bo potovalo iz severa novo ciklonsko območje proti Sredozemlju.

[dominikb]

Kot izgleda ,naj bi bilo v začetku drugega tedna topleje zaradi jugozahodnih vetrov, nato pa bo od srede ali četrtka naprej zopet bolj spremenljivo vreme z nevihtami. To naj bi trajalo vsaj do konca meseca in še v začetku junija dvomim da bo kaj bolj stabilno. Najboljše bo da sledimo situaciji.

[maticek07]

Bastardi pravi, da bo zima 10/11 brutalna


<sup>HEADS UP EASTERN EUROPE, BRUTAL WINTER MAY BE IN THE MAKING

A couple of notes from yours truly on the upcoming Euro winter.



I do not like the looks of this.

First of all... Northern hemisphere Ice has returned to well below normal. It will not reach the levels of 2007 as there is much thicker ice now than there was then and the turn to cooler than normal in the arctic will occur July on. So the latter part of the ice melt season will be slower. In the meantime..a record southern hemisphere ice season may be in the making! Total global sea ice is currently a shade ABOVE normal.



Globally, this has been a very warm start, but the crash is coming. Last year, in spite of the cold winter I had for the states and Europe, I expected and made note of a spike in global temps. This year, global WINTER temps instead of being over .5C above normal will be near or below normal ( I have -.05C) for the 3 month running mean.

I am expecting much of Europe to average below normal this winter with temps as much as 3c BELOW normal in Scandinavia and south into the Balkans. Western Europe is up for grabs and may be closer to normal..not as bad as last year.. moral is the further east you live, the worst things may be.

This is all I have for this right now, it is only June. I dont want to be mean, but that is as far as I am going right now, so I wont be answering email questions on specifics.

If you are upset that it may be cold again ( although GB and Ireland may be closer to normal) a word of advice... get used to it.. more is on the way in the coming decades

ciao for now ****</sup>

[vremenar12]

Poglejmo kaj pravijo dolgoročne ameriške napovedi za prihajajočo jesen in zimo.

JESEN 2010:
Evropa:
Jesen bo v vzhodni polovici Evrope nekoliko toplejša od povprečja, drugod pa bolj hladna kot je normalno.
V večjem delu Evrope bo tudi več padavin kot je običajno, suho jesen si lahko obetajo le v Rusiji in na Iberskem polotoku.

Slovenija:
Pri nas lahko pričakujemo bolj hladno jesen kot je običajno in tudi nadpovprečno namočeno. Najbolj hladen bo kot kaže november, kar pomeni, da bo letos lahko zima precej zgodnja.

ZIMA 2010/2011:
Evropa:
Zima bo v večjem delu  Evrope hladnejša od povprečja, najbolj mrzlo bo v Rusiji. V zahodni Evropi pa kaže na nekoliko bolj milo zimo kot je običajno.
Padavin bo padlo najmanj v Sredozemlju in vzhodni Evropi, na Iberskem polotoku kaže na zelo suho zimo. Nekoliko več padavin pa bo v severnem delu srednje Evrope in v Skandinaviji.

Slovenija:
Pri nas bo letošnja zima nekoliko hladnejša kot je običajno in precej suha s podpovprečno količino snega.

Vir:http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecSea.gif